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Stock markets will be driven by inflation data, trade-related news, earnings and trading activity of foreign investors in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said on Sunday. Global market trends will also influence trading sentiment this week, they added.
Infosys on Wednesday reported a one-time exceptional hit of Rs 1,289 crore on account of the impact of the implementation of new labour codes, as India's second-largest IT services firm announced its December quarter earnings.
Among Sensex firms, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Eternal, Adani Ports, Hindustan Unilever and Bharat Electronics were the major laggards. However, Bharti Airtel, Axis Bank, Asian Paints and Titan were among the gainers.
Weak market sentiment has driven a steady decline in cash market volumes and margin trading books over the past nine months. Cash market volumes have plummeted by 45 per cent from their peak in June 2024, while the margin book - used by traders to leverage stock purchases - has shrunk by 16 per cent since its high in September 2024.
Among Sensex firms, Mahindra & Mahindra, Asian Paints, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, Tata Motors and Larsen & Toubro closed with losses. However, Power Grid, NTPC, Tata Steel and Hindustan Unilever were the major gainers.
Among the Sensex constituents, Bharat Electronics Ltd, Eternal, Trent, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance, Adani Ports, Bajaj Finserv, State Bank of India, PowerGrid, Asian Paints, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Titan, NTPC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Larsen & Toubro and Bharti Airtel were among the laggards. Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank were the only gainers.
Mumbai recorded its strongest housing market performance in 14 years in 2025, with property registrations rising to 150,254, amid a sustained end-user demand and supportive supply-side ecosystem, according to Knight Frank India.
Reliance Industries cracked 4.42 per cent, while ITC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, InterGlobe Aviation, and HDFC Bank were also among the laggards. However, ICICI Bank, Sun Pharma, Hindustan Unilever, and State Bank of India were among the gainers.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Tuesday announced a fresh round of liquidity measures through open-market operations (OMOs) and a foreign exchange buy-sell swap, under which it will inject close to Rs 3 trillion into the banking system. The central bank said it would purchase Government of India securities worth Rs 2 trillion through OMOs, spread across four tranches of Rs 50,000 crore each to be conducted on December 29, January 5, January 12 and January 22.
'Economic activity appears to have peaked in the second quarter of FY26, with industrial output, exports, and business confidence all softening from October 2025.'
Among the Sensex constituents, Eternal, Trent, Bharti Airtel, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, UltraTech Cement, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance, Tata Consultancy Services, Bharat Electronics Ltd, Larsen & Toubro and Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles were the laggards. However, Tata Steel, Sun Pharmaceuticals, ITC, NTPC, Reliance Industries, HCL Technologies, PowerGrid, and Asian Paints were among the gainers.
Companies are squeezing more profits from their operations relative to the capital they put to work, the highest now since 2011. Profit after tax relative to capital employed came in at 10.47 per cent in September, shows data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), higher than the 8.41 per cent seen in September last year. This is the highest since March 2010.
'Stopping now would defeat the core purpose of an SIP, which is to average out the purchase cost over market cycles.'
Among Sensex firms, Tata Steel, HCL Tech, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Bharat Electronics and Eternal were the major laggards. However, Maruti, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles and ITC were among the gainers.
'Exiting during corrections tends to lock in losses. Patient investors have benefited from holding through similar drawdowns in past cycles.'
New investor additions by mutual funds (MFs) have slowed dramatically in recent months, indicating that market correction and a rise in volatility are somewhat dimming the appeal of equity schemes. MFs have onboarded 300,000 new investors in April 2025, the lowest in 22 months.
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), the country's largest player in information-technology (IT) export, has seen a sharp decline in its contribution to the Tata group's market capitalisation in recent years though it remains the most valuable company in the conglomerate. Its 44.8 per cent share in the combined market capitalisation of the listed Tata group companies is the lowest since March 2009 and is down sharply from the all-time high contribution of 74.4 per cent at the end of March 2020.
The rupee recovered 55 paise from its all-time low level to close at 90.38 against the US dollar after a volatile trade on Wednesday, amid suspected aggressive central bank intervention.
While gold continues to provide safety after its strong 2025 rally, well-chosen real estate investments held with a long-term view remain attractive.
'The net inflows into MF schemes may also have been lower last month, with investors booking profit and taking a more measured approach amid elevated valuations.'
Analysts have sharply reduced cigarette maker ITC's earning estimates for the next two years, fearing a significant dent in the company's profitability and margins. This is owing to a steep hike in excise duty on tobacco by the government.
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries on Wednesday posted a 2.56 per cent increase in its consolidated net profit to Rs 3,118 crore for the second quarter ended September 30, aided by robust sales in India and emerging markets. The Mumbai-based drug major reported a net profit of Rs 3,040 crore for the July-September quarter of the last fiscal.
Trading sentiment in the stock market this week will be guided by quarterly earning announcements from blue-chips such as Infosys and Bajaj Finance, the outcome of India-US trade talks and global cues, analysts said. Markets may on Monday react to the quarterly results of three heavyweights - Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, an expert said.
Mutual fund industry extended its bull run in 2025, adding a staggering Rs 14 lakh crore to its asset base and pushing total AUM to a record Rs 81 lakh crore by November, powered by surge in retail participation and record SIP inflows. Venkat Chalasani, chief executive officer of AMFI, told PTI that the industry's outlook remains positive, with steady SIP inflows continuing to offset foreign portfolio investor outflows and strengthening market resilience.
India's real gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to grow at 7.5 per cent in FY26 and moderate to 7 per cent in the subsequent fiscal year, a domestic rating agency said on Wednesday.
The stock of automotive (auto) components major Bharat Forge has risen 14.6 per cent over the past month. Despite ongoing demand challenges, strong operating performance in the July-September quarter (Q3) of 2025-26 (FY26), a diversified revenue base, and expectations of a gradual recovery have lifted sentiment.
The strategy was straightforward - aggressively buy select Bank Nifty index stocks in the morning and sell them just as forcefully later in the day, triggering a sharp drop in share prices.
India has managed high government debt-to-GDP, a slowing domestic revenue engine, lower household savings and a more hostile geopolitical environment separately in the past. But together, they threaten to undo the growth narrative on which today's optimism rests, warns Debashis Basu.
Stock markets are in for an event-heavy week ahead with a raft of Q1 earnings from blue-chips, the US Fed interest rate decision and foreign investors trading activity driving investors' sentiment, analysts said. Macroeconomic data announcements, monthly auto sales numbers and global market trends would also guide movement in the domestic equities, they said.
ilver continues to outperform the yellow metal, with the gold-to-silver price ratio declining to its lowest level since 2013. The ratio fell to around 57 on Wednesday in the international market, from a five-year high of 100.8 at the end of April 2025.
From the Sensex firms, Power Grid, Eternal, Tata Motors, Tata Steel, Maruti and Bharat Electronics, were among the major laggards. However, Titan, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finance, Mahindra & Mahindra, and State Bank of India were the gainers.
The government bond yield curve is likely to flatten in the financial year 2027 (FY27) as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to ease supply pressure in the ultra-long segment. In FY26 so far, reduced investments by insurance companies and pension funds pushed up yields on ultra-long tenor securities, steepening the curve.
'The day is not too far when the share of MFs alone will be greater than that of foreign institutional investors.'
Ghost malls have a vacancy rate of over 50 per cent.
The rupee plunged 38 paise to close at an all-time low of 90.32 against the US dollar on Thursday amid uncertainty over the India-US trade deal. Forex traders said the rupee is expected to trade with a negative bias as the delay in the trade deal between India and the US may continue to dent investor confidence.
From the Sensex firms, Eternal, NTPC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Power Grid, Trent and HDFC Bank were among the major laggards. However, Bharat Electronics, Larsen & Toubro, Tata Consultancy Services, ITC and State Bank of India were the gainers.
Equity markets this week will turn their focus on the RBI's interest rate decision, Q1 earnings from several blue-chip firms and tariff-related news for further cues, analysts said. Moreover, trading activity of foreign investors and trends in global equity markets will also drive investors' sentiment.
Despite trailing the benchmark Nifty 50, small and midcap (SMID) stocks appear pricey on a 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) basis. The Nifty trades at roughly 21x forward earnings, compared with around 28x for both the Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 indices.
Among Sensex firms, Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, Eternal, Axis Bank, Maruti, Tata Steel, HDFC Bank and Asian Paints were the gainers. However, Adani Ports, Trent, Tata Motors, Hindustan Unilever and NTPC were among the laggards.
